The Society of Actuaries Research Institute: Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey - Updated through March 2022

 Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey - Updated through March 2022

Authors:

Thomas J. Britt, FSA, MAAA
Paul Correia, FSA, MAAA
Patrick Hurley, FSA, MAAA
Mike Krohn, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Tony LaSala, FSA, MAAA
Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA
Robert Lumia, FSA, MAAA
Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Patrick Nolan, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Steve Rulis, FSA, MAAA
Bram Spector, FSA, MAAA

Description

The Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey gathers a high-level view of U.S. Group Term Life Insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic through March 2022, as compared to prior period baseline mortality results. This new report is an update to the survey report released in January 2022, which contained data through September 2021.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s January and August 2022 reports regarding U.S. Group Life COVID-19 mortality explore the impact of COVID-19 on the group life insurance sector and does not address or consider vaccine status. The research does not validate any claims made that suggest a causal relationship between COVID-19 vaccines and mortality. Any claims implying such a relationship are a misrepresentation of the data presented in the report and are not reflective of the SOA Research Institute's views.

Materials

Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey

Excerpt:

From an incurred mortality viewpoint, all 24 months from April 2020 through March 2022 showed excess mortality2 versus baseline expectations. December 2020, August 2021, and September 2021 each had very high incurred mortality spikes of 40% or more, whereas the other 21 months ranged from a low of 5% excess incurred mortality to a high of 29% excess incurred mortality above baseline.
The 24-month period of April 2020 through March 2022 showed the following Group Life mortality results:
• Estimated reported Group Life claim incidence rates were up 20.0% on a seasonally-adjusted basis compared to 2017–2019 reported claims.
• Estimated incurred Group Life incidence rates were 20.9% higher than baseline on a seasonally-adjusted basis. As noted above, the incurred incidence rates in February and March 2022 are based on fairly incomplete data, so they are subject to change and should not be fully relied upon at this point.

Future Mortality Improvement Scale
Development (VM-20)
LATF Update #1
Mortality Improvements Life Work Group (MILWG), the
Academy’s Life Experience Committee and the SOA’s Preferred
Mortality Project Oversight Group (“Joint Committee”)

Life Actuarial Task Force (LATF) Meeting—May 2022