Statistical Model Indicates Trump Actually Won Majorities in Five Disputed States and 49.68 Percent of the Vote in a Sixth

Statistical Model Indicates Trump Actually WonMajorities in Five Disputed States and 49.68 Percent of the Vote in a Sixth
December 14, 2020 (2d ago)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

We report a simple yet powerful statistical model of county-level voter behavior in the November 2020 presidential election using two main types of data:   

1.      County-specific voting data from the five previous presidential elections.

2.      Selected demographic variables (race and education) plotting how different national voter groups voted differently in 2020 overall.   

These two types of predictors allow us to explain over 95% of the variation in county-level votes, and therefore allow us identify which counties (and consequently, states) look substantially anomalous in the 2020 election.  

The model provides substantial support for the allegation that the outcome of the election was affected by fraud in multiple states.  Specifically, the model’s predictions match the reported results in all other states, i.e. states where no fraud has been alleged, but predicts Trump won majorities in five disputed states (AZ, GA, NV, PA and WI) and 49.68% of the vote in the sixth (MI).   

In other words, the reported Biden margin of victory in at least five of the six contested states cannot be explained by any patterns in voter preference consistent with national demographic trends.